How to Cite:
Chidi Onwubiko Ukaegbu, Chidi Agodi Okoroafor, Chukwuma, Ogonna Ebenezer, "West African Coups and the Debate on Junta-Led Tri-State Confederation" International Journal of Humanities Science Innovations and Management Studies, Vol. 2, No. 6, pp. 12-21, 2025.

Abstract:
The re-emergence of coups in West Africa has become a critical issue for discussion within and outside the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region. With the recent spate of coups witnessed in West Africa: from Mali, Egypt, Gabon, Burkina Faso, Niger, and others, the trend and the issues it throws up poses fears as to what new dimensions and effect it would assume in the nearest future. Thus, the present research paper examines coups in West Africa and the debate on junta led tri-state confederation formed by the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) which came into being amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel. This formation was fuelled by the aftermath of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011 resulting from the instability caused by rampant arms trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Specifically, the study examines how the formation of a Junta-led tri-state confederation affects the political landscape of West Africa. Anchored on both Frustration-Aggression theory and leadership substitute theory, the research adopts the qualitative approach of data collection which relies on secondary sources such as books, journals, magazines, newspapers, official publications etc and content analysis for the data generated. Findings from the study show that recent coups in West Africa fuelled the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and the confederation will deliberately expand the operational space of the junta alliance and consolidate its military and economic partnership with Russia China, as well as Turkey and Iran. Their secession will undermine the legitimacy of ECOWAS and hinder regional economic and security integration and this will invariably complicate the return to democratization. Thus, the AES’s rejection of ECOWAS’s democratic norms and emphasis on military governance creates a stark contrast between the AES bloc and the rest of West Africa, leading to increased regional polarization. Based on these findings, the study recommends among other things, that ECOWAS should strengthen monitoring mechanisms to detect early signs of governance failures or instability within its regions. This includes but not limited to rising corruption, weakened democratic institutions and increasing security threats which could enable diplomatic intervention before a coup occurs as well as working with local actors to resolve governance issues before they give rise to coups.

Keywords: Coups, Confederation, ECOWAS, Tri-State, Frustration-Aggression.

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